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ميزان المدفوعات وعلاقته بتقلبات سعر الصرف في دول المغرب العربي: مقاربة باستخدام (ARDL Panel)
Hachi Naouri / Benkhelif Tarek / Mohamed ELaguab
Abstract: This article aims to study the relationship between balance of payments and exchange rate fluctuations in the Arab Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia), over the period 2005-2018, by using the Panel ARDL-Model. The obtained results show that the studied variables are co-integrated and the adjustment speed to restore long-run equilibrium in the dynamic model will be corrected by 23% in one year. Furthermore, if the exchange rate decreases by one unity, the balance of payments of the studied countries will experience a loss of $950 million and $830 million by using the FMOLS method and ARDL model respectively.
Keywords: the Arab Maghreb countries; Balance of payments; Exchange rate; Panel data; Co-integration relationship.
Jel Classification Codes: E01, C23